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Hugo 2022 Prediction List
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pgcarron
Posted 2022-01-09 10:56 PM (#23695)
Subject: Hugo 2022 Prediction List



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Seeing as how it's a new year, I thought I'd create a new thread for this year's Hugo predictions.

For the past few years I've created a Hugo prediction list using a regression analysis that weighs a given book's performance in precursor book awards, the author's past award and nomination history, and several other factors. This is not a list of books I think are deserving of the award, just a formula-based prediction based on a number of indicators.

I correctly predicted all 6 novel and all 6 novella finalists last year.

This is the current top 6 for this year's awards:

Novel:
A Desolation Called Peace by Arkady Martine
Project Hail Mary by Andy Weir
The Chosen and the Beautiful by Nghi Vo
A Master of Djinn by P. Djeli Clark
Light From Uncommon Stars by Ryka Aoki
The Galaxy, and the Ground Within by Becky Chambers
(with The Jasmine Throne by Tasha Suri just barely outside the top 6).

Novella:
Remote Control by Nnedi Okorafor
Fugitive Telemetry by Martha Wells
Across the Green Grass Fields by Seanan McGuire
A Psalm for the Wild-Built by Becky Chambers
A Spindle Splintered by Alix E. Harrow
Fireheart Tiger by Aliette de Bodard

I'll post updates in the comments as new data points are added over the next few months.
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Linguana
Posted 2022-01-10 3:06 AM (#23696 - in reply to #23695)
Subject: RE: Hugo 2022 Prediction List



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Location: Austria

I really like these predictions, not because they're necessarily my favorite novels and novellas of the year but because they sound like spot-on Hugo contenders. I do believe a few other books have a reasonable chance to make the final ballot, though. What do you think? Did they make your predicted long list?

 

The Echo Wife by Sarah Gailey

 I'm thinking maybe instead of Light From Uncommon Stars? Mostly because the latter one came out later in the year and may not have found enough readers yet. Otherwise I believe it's very much a book Hugo voters might go for (I read it and liked it but won't nominate it for a Hugo).

 Jade Legacy by Fonda Lee

Maybe this one is a long shot. It also just came out, so even fewer readers than Ryka Aoki. But I'm pretty sure the Green Bone Saga will make an appearance on the Best Series ballot.

 

 Comfort Me With Apples by Catherynne M. Valente  

This could make the ballot either instead of Alix Harrow or Aliette de Bodard. Harrow is a Hugo darling (and I'm nominating her novella myself) but I haven't heard too many praises about this particular book. Valente, on the other hand, has garnered nothing but praise this year for her horror novella. I myself preferred her other one (The Past is Red) but I think if one of them has a shot, it's this creepy little gem.

 

Anyway, I love your predictions and I'm already so excited to see what the 2022 Hugos hold in store. 

 

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lisagarrity
Posted 2022-01-10 2:23 PM (#23697 - in reply to #23695)
Subject: Re: Hugo 2022 Prediction List



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Location: California		There's some really good books on your list. It will be interesting to see what if anything changes. I'm wondering if Cloud Cuckoo Land might make the list eventually.
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pgcarron
Posted 2022-01-18 10:13 PM (#23715 - in reply to #23696)
Subject: RE: Hugo 2022 Prediction List



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@ Linguana: Thank you!

Yes, Echo Wife is on my long list, but closer to the bottom. Believe it or not, summer(ish) books (May-October) are more likely to make the ballot than ones published at the end/beginning of the year. Possibly because they make a more recent impact on voters than books published earlier, but have still had more time to pick up steam than ones published in Nov-Dec? Just speculation. Over the past 5 years, September has been the most common release month among finalists.

Jade Legacy is a long shot as you say, but not too far from the long list. The fact that the previous two novels weren't finalists is the biggest kicker. I hope to see it in Best Series though because I love it.

Comfort Me With Apples is currently just outside the short list and I could definitely see it showing up on there at some point.

Edited by pgcarron 2022-01-18 10:15 PM
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pgcarron
Posted 2022-01-18 10:22 PM (#23716 - in reply to #23697)
Subject: Re: Hugo 2022 Prediction List



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@lisagarrity:

Cloud Cuckoo Land is pretty far down at this point. It's missed out on a lot of the key indicators voters typically go for. It's performing well in traditional literary awards, though, like the National Book Award.
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pgcarron
Posted 2022-04-01 12:05 PM (#23903 - in reply to #23695)
Subject: Re: Hugo 2022 Prediction List



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Here are my final predictions for the 2022 Hugo Awards based on my prediction formula. Last year I predicted all of the novel and novella finalists correctly. This year's novel database ends with 31 variables and 283 works. The novella database ends with 26 variables and 83 works.

Novels:
1. A Desolation Called Peace by Arkady Martine
2. A Master of Djinn by P. Djeli Clark
3. The Galaxy, and the Ground Within by Becky Chambers
4. Project Hail Mary by Andy Weir
5. Light From Uncommon Stars by Ryka Aoki
6. The Jasmine Throne by Tasha Suri

A Desolation Called Peace is almost a full point ahead of the next novel on the list. The Chosen and the Beautiful by Nghi Vo misses out on the top 6 by a very thin margin.

Novellas:
1. Remote Control by Nnedi Okorafor
2. A Psalm for the Wild-Built by Becky Chambers
3. Fugitive Telemetry by Martha Wells
4. A Spindle Splintered by Alix E. Harrow
5. Fireheart Tiger by Aliette de Bodard
6. Across the Green Grass Fields by Seanan McGuire
7. Comfort Me With Apples by Catherynne M. Valente

I included no. 7 because I expect Martha Wells to decline a nomination, as she did with the Nebula Awards.

Just a note that the books highest on the lists are not the expected winners - that would be a completely different formula - just the ones most likely to be nominated. Nominations closed on March 15 and Chicon 8 has written that the final ballot will be announced sometime in April, so feel free to check back here at that point to laugh if I'm way off.
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lisagarrity
Posted 2022-04-01 4:23 PM (#23904 - in reply to #23695)
Subject: Re: Hugo 2022 Prediction List



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Location: California		I've heard that the list will be released April 7th. I nominated a couple that were not on your lists but I suspect your lists will be spot on.
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lisagarrity
Posted 2022-04-08 12:44 AM (#23920 - in reply to #23695)
Subject: Re: Hugo 2022 Prediction List



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Location: California		The Hugo finalists are here! I was surprised by She Who Became the Sun. Four of the novellas and four of the novels I nominated made the list, so I am very happy with this year's list.

Novels
A Desolation Called Peace by Arkady Martine (Tor)
The Galaxy, and the Ground Within by Becky Chambers (Harper Voyager / Hodder & Stoughton)
Light From Uncommon Stars by Ryka Aoki (Tor / St Martin?s Press)
A Master of Djinn by P. Dj?l? Clark (Tordotcom / Orbit UK)
Project Hail Mary by Andy Weir (Ballantine / Del Rey)
She Who Became the Sun by Shelley Parker-Chan (Tor / Mantle)

Novellas
Across the Green Grass Fields by Seanan McGuire (Tordotcom)
Elder Race by Adrian Tchaikovsky (Tordotcom)
Fireheart Tiger by Aliette de Bodard (Tordotcom)
The Past Is Red by Catherynne M. Valente (Tordotcom)
A Psalm for the Wild-Built by Becky Chambers (Tordotcom)
A Spindle Splintered by Alix E. Harrow (Tordotcom)

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TheBlackYeti
Posted 2022-08-01 7:24 PM (#24104 - in reply to #23695)
Subject: Re: Hugo 2022 Prediction List



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I loved She Who Became The Sun. I definitely think it deserves the nom! I've only read that and PHM off the list (so far!) but if the rest hold up to that level of quality (and fun!) i'd say it's a pretty strong year.
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Ziesings
Posted 2022-08-31 11:22 PM (#25035 - in reply to #23695)
Subject: Re: Hugo 2022 Prediction List



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Location: Portland, Oregon		I've finished all of the best novel nominees and will be voting She Who Became the Sun as my number one. A Desolation Called Peace and A Master of Djinn were second and third for me, with the remaining three left well behind in the dust.
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